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SIMULATION
MODELING
Have you ever wished that you could
try out a new idea in your organization—without
risking the entire business? Simulation modeling, a powerful
systems thinking tool, lets you do just that. To build a model,
you can use one of the several software packages developed
by companies like High Performance
Systems, Ventana Systems,
or Powersim, or you can work with a consultant who is well
versed in these tools.
When
you work with software or a consultant to build a model, you
define the variables (things that change over time) that are
important in the problem you're trying to address. You then
clarify your assumptions about how those variables affect
one another, and assign mathematical equations to reflect
those relationships (for example, "Let's assume that
every dollar invested in marketing will generate two dollars
worth of sales"). Once you've assigned these equations,
you can plug in various changes, run the simulation, and see
what outcome your changes might generate!
Even
if you don't actually get to the point of building and using
a simulation model, the mere process of defining variables,
clarifying assumptions about their interrelationships, and
expressing those relationships in mathematical equations is
valuable. Why? Because it forces you and your team to think
carefully about the problem at hand. And by working through
your problem with that kind of discipline, you'll be much
more likely to arrive at an effective, enduring solution.
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