TABLE OF CONTENTS

§ The Power of Systems Thinking
§ Identifying the Issue
     Determine Whether Systems Thinking Will Help Tell the Story
     Draw "Behavior Over Time" Diagrams
     Create a Focusing Question
§ Diagramming the Problem
     Diagram Each Theory Separately
     Explore Causal Links and Systemic Structure
     Create Feedback Loops
     Test Your Theories
     Going Deeper into the Issues
     Entry Points to Computer Modeling
§ Designing the Intervention
     Determine What You Want
     Map the Intervention
     Estimate What Will Happen Over Time
     Do Controlled Experiments
     Get All Stakeholders Involved

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Colleen Lannon is co-founder of Pegasus Communications and former managing editor of THE SYSTEMS THINKER™ Newsletter.

Michael Goodman is a principal of Innovation Associates, Inc., an Arthur D. Little company, and heads IA's Systems Thinking Group.

Richard Karash is a consultant, facilitator, and trainer in the disciplines of the learning organization. He is an adjunct member of the staff at Innovation Associates, Inc.

Kellie Wardman O'Reilly is publications director at Pegasus Communications, Inc.

Don Seville served as a research affiliate at the MIT Center for Organizational Learning and a consulting associate with Gould-Kreutzer Associates. He is an independent consultant.

Lauren Johnson, publications editor at Pegasus Communications, Inc., provided extensive editorial support on this volume.

EXCERPTS

Determine Whether Systems Thinking Will Help

Under the pressure of deadlines and last-minute crises, managers often exhibit the "ready, fire, aim" syndrome—-leaping into action without adequate thought or preparation. Don't commit a similar error by jumping into a systems thinking intervention without first assessing the need for such an approach. There are so many effective tools for identifying problems, determining potential solutions, and implementing changes that it is important to gauge up front whether systems thinking is the best option for your particular issue.

Here are the questions that the Bijou Bottling team considered in trying to decide whether to take a systems thinking approach to their problem with late deliveries:

? Has the problem been around long enough to have a history? Awareness of the problem's history can help you to track key trends, a valuable step in uncovering the systemic structures that are driving the difficulty.

? Do the people involved have multiple, and possibly contrasting, theories about the cause of the problem? For example, a manager says, "Increasing our change efforts will lead to a better quality product," but her colleagues feel that intensifying change efforts will actually diminish product quality. These competing hypotheses suggest that collective uncertainty or conflicting assumptions may lie at the root of the disagreement. If you hear such contradictory theories, it is likely that the problem is rooted in dynamic complexity, as discussed in the point below.

? Does the problem exhibit dynamic complexity? Highly complicated systems exhibit several characteristic behaviors, but these two are probably the most recognizable: (1) They tend to be self-stabilizing; that is, they seem to stubbornly recur and resist change despite people's best efforts, and (2) They appear to be purposeful, or to have a mind of their own. Complex problem behavior also typically shows one of the classic patterns of a dynamic system at work: oscillation, a steep increase or decrease, or "boom and bust" cycles.

? Is the problem best addressed with a fresh approach? Systems thinking should not be used to further an existing agenda or advocate a predetermined solution. In fact, imposing it on others can actually provoke resistance—both to the ideas being argued, and to systems thinking itself. The systemic approach is best used in the spirit of inquiry, not inquisition.

? Are the people involved dead certain that they know the cause of the problem? Phrases such as, "More salespeople will lead to higher revenues," "We just have to do more of what we did last time," or "It's just a matter of trying harder" all strongly suggest that systems thinking might help. These kinds of statements reveal that an individual, team, or organization is operating under a set of assumptions that may benefit from testing.

Bijou's earliest struggles with its problem of chronic late shipments reveals the importance of listening for dynamic complexity and using systems thinking to explore competing hypotheses. The late-delivery problem had generated a lot of tension within the organization, and members of various departments had begun pointing fingers at each other in their efforts to explain the problem and identify its cause. Bijou's managers knew they had to figure out a sustainable solution—not just something that would work in the short term. They began to explore the ideas and tool of systems thinking. However, as early discussions got under way, conflicts began to emerge.

During one team meeting, for example, several participants spent over an hour blaming each other for Bijou's problems. The exchange grew quite heated, and the team quickly became stuck—they realized they couldn't move forward until they could get beyond the simple arguments they were having about the causes of their late-delivery problem.

Struggling with their contradictory theories, the Bijou team experienced firsthand what dynamic complexity can feel like. Yet it was this very complexity and seemingly unresolvable debate that told them that systems thinking was worth trying. Taking a deep breath, they collected themselves and made a firm commitment to the systems thinking process.